Senegal’s home fuel reserves will be primarily used to produce electrical energy. Authorities expect that home gasoline infrastructure initiatives will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there is not any delay. The monetization of those vital energy resources is at the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä performed in-depth research that analyse the economic impact of the various gas-to-power methods out there to Senegal. Two very different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system cost variations between the two main gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is currently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in reality a lot better suited than combined cycle gasoline turbines to harness energy from Senegal’s new fuel sources cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total price differences between the two technologies might reach as much as 480 million USD until 2035 relying on situations.
Two competing and very completely different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art power mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality situations to determine the fee optimum approach to deliver new technology capacity for a specific country, exhibits that ICE and CCGT technologies present significant cost variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very different when it comes to the profiles by which they can operate. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it may possibly perform at 90% load issue at all times. On the other hand, flexible ICE expertise can operate effectively in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another generation applied sciences that will make up the country’s power mix.
In specific our examine reveals that when working in an electricity network of limited dimension such as Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to significantly expand the network capability would be extremely pricey in all potential eventualities.
Cost differences between the technologies are explained by a variety of components. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impact the output of gasoline turbines greater than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated entry to low-cost home gasoline, the working costs turn into much less impactful than the funding costs. In other phrases, as a result of low gas costs lower working costs, it is financially sound for the country to depend on ICE power plants, that are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity also performs a key position. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capability every year to have the flexibility to meet the growing demand. This is far decrease than the capability of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that have to be built in one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine energy crops, however, are modular, which suggests they are often constructed precisely as and when the nation wants them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The model exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation at the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of extra value for the system by 2035. The price difference between the applied sciences may even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal also chooses to construct new renewable power capability throughout the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential fuel infrastructure delays
The improvement of fuel infrastructure is a posh and lengthy endeavour. Program delays aren’t uncommon, causing fuel supply disruptions that can have an enormous financial impression on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is aware of something about that. Only final yr, significant fuel supply issues have brought on shutdowns at a number of the country’s largest gasoline turbine energy crops. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion course of, they require a constant provide of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing a fantastic pressure on the general system. ICE-Gas vegetation on the other hand, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they had been able to maintain a much larger level of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the financial influence of 2 years delay within the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to invest into gas engines, the worth of gasoline delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra cost.
Whichever means you have a glance at it, new ICE-Gas technology capability will reduce the total value of electricity in Senegal in all potential scenarios. If เกจวัดแรงดันน้ำ4หุน is to fulfill electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal method, at least 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.
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